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BA.net feedsburner SeekingAlpha News 13/05/2008
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Cherry Picking the WNA Nuclear Energy Index
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The polls are in. The WNA Nuclear Energy Index is a clear winner over the S&P 500. Well, let's quantify that; the S&P 500's 5-year annualized return is 11%, the "back-tested" WNA Nuclear Energy Index returned 33% annualized over the past 5-years. It's fair to say the nuclear index holds a decisive edge. Of course, past performance notwithstanding, the nuclear industry appears poised for stronger momentum in the years to come as nuclear build-out starts to gain traction. Using the last nuclear build-out cycle as an example, a safe assumption would indicate an expansion cycle that may last as long as 15 years. This type of data makes PowerShares' Global Nuclear Energy Portfolio ETF (PKN), which tracks the WNA index, quite attractive as a long-tern investment.

2008-05-13T07:15:56-04:00
Peter Charles
Peter Charles submits:
The polls are in. The WNA Nuclear Energy Index is a clear winner over the S&P 500. Well, let's quantify that; the S&P 500's 5-year annualized return is 11%, the "back-tested" WNA Nuclear Energy Index returned 33% annualized over the past 5-years. It's fair to say the nuclear index holds a decisive edge. Of course, past performance notwithstanding, the nuclear industry appears poised for stronger momentum in the years to come as nuclear build-out starts to gain traction. Using the last nuclear build-out cycle as an example, a safe assumption would indicate an expansion cycle that may last as long as 15 years. This type of data makes PowerShares' Global Nuclear Energy Portfolio ETF (PKN), which tracks the WNA index, quite attractive as a long-tern investment.

Complete Story »
PKN
MDR
LDR
Peter Charles
-
The Long Case for PolyOne Corporation
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On May 6, PolyOne Corp. (POL), the leader in North America and Europe for polymer compounds and polymer coating systems, reported 2008 1st quarter earnings (see conference call transcript). EPS came in at 7 cents per share vs. 8 cents per share for the same quarter last year. This caused a 43-cent drop (6%) in the stock.

2008-05-13T07:09:28-04:00
Matt Schuering
Matt Schuering submits:
On May 6, PolyOne Corp. (POL), the leader in North America and Europe for polymer compounds and polymer coating systems, reported 2008 1st quarter earnings (see conference call transcript). EPS came in at 7 cents per share vs. 8 cents per share for the same quarter last year. This caused a 43-cent drop (6%) in the stock.

Complete Story »
POL
Matt Schuering
-
Collective Brands: Trademark Infringement Case Update and Stock Assessment
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Collective Brands (NYSE: PSS) CEO Matt Rubel responded to last week's unfavorable federal court ruling in which the company was found guilty of trademark infringement and ordered to pay $305M in damages to adidas AG. In a letter to shareholders,
Rubel discussed why he believes that the jury's ruling was "unjustified
and excessive," and disclosed that the company will file motions asking
the court to set aside the verdict, enter a judgment in its favor,
order a new trial, or greatly reduce the jury's award.
Two key points from Rubel's letter:
- The
total award of $305M (including $137M of Payless profits and $137M in
punitive damages) is ten times the amount of actual damages found
($30.6M) and exceeds the profits that Payless ShoeSource made on its
two- and four-stripe shoe styles by 15 times. Though our scope of
patent and trademark infringement case is limited, we don't ever recall
seeing a jury award of this magnitude.
- If the decision
stands as ruled, it may also give adidas exclusive rights to all two-
and four-stripe footwear designs. Payless is by no means the only
footwear retailer with a private label that resembles adidas'
three-stripe design (look around the footwear department at any mass
merchant retailer). A ruling like this could potentially give adidas a
monopoly on all striped shoe styles, which would have grave
consequences across the industry as a whole.
As we
discussed last week, the final outcome of legal disputes like these are
virtually impossible to predict. Even though management provided
compelling evidence as to why the jury award should be reduced,
investors should not assume this will happen when forming an investment
thesis or valuation assumptions. The only certainty in this matter is
that the company will incur additional litigation expenses, leading to
additional margin pressures in coming quarters. There is also the
matter of the ongoing K-Swiss (NASDAQ: KSWS)
trademark battle taking place in California. We anticipate the K-Swiss
legal team will use findings from the adidas case to augment its own
arguments, likely requiring additional litigation costs on the part of
Collective Brands.
On a positive note, Rubel reported that the
company is set to announce 1Q08 sales of $932M (a decline of 2.5% y/y)
and EPS of $0.61-$0.67, beating current consensus analyst estimates.
Management also expects EBITDA to exceed $100M - almost 11% of sales -
which is a solid figure given the current challenges facing the
footwear industry. While the 1Q08 results are encouraging, they do come
with a grain of salt. The 1Q08 results do not include the impact of
additional litigation expenses (the 1Q08 impact should be minimal - it
is future quarters we are more concerned with) and an $0.08 tax benefit
stemming from earnings generated in lower-tax international
jurisdictions (largely South America). Excluding the positive tax
effect, 1Q08 earnings would come in roughly equivalent to the analyst
consensus of $0.54 per share.
Investment recommendation: The
stock was up almost 12% in Monday's trading session to $11.50 [ed: it closed at $11.82], due
largely to the better-than-expected 1Q08 earnings results. Using the
previous consensus calendar 2008 (fiscal 2009) EPS estimate of $1.12
plus the $0.10 upside from the 1Q08 results (comparing the midpoint of
the $0.61-$0.67 range to the previous consensus of $0.54), the stock is
now trading at 9.5x times forward earnings, roughly in-line with
long-term earnings growth expectations. We remain upbeat on the
prospects for the combined Payless/Stride Rite/Collective Licensing
platform, and admire the merchandising creativity that Rubel has
assembled under the Collective Brands umbrella. However, we still
characterize Collective Brands as a long-term investment that will
require patience on the part of the investor. Even longer-horizon value
investors may want to wait until after the 1Q08 conference call (June
4th, 5;00 pm EST) to build or add to positions - there is a chance that
negative commentary regarding the overall state of the footwear industry or ongoing litigation could bring the stock price downward.
Disclosure: No positions
2008-05-13T06:52:59-04:00
R.J. Hottovy
R.J. Hottovy submits: Collective Brands (NYSE: PSS) CEO Matt Rubel responded to last week's unfavorable federal court ruling in which the company was found guilty of trademark infringement and ordered to pay $305M in damages to adidas AG. In a letter to shareholders,
Rubel discussed why he believes that the jury's ruling was "unjustified
and excessive," and disclosed that the company will file motions asking
the court to set aside the verdict, enter a judgment in its favor,
order a new trial, or greatly reduce the jury's award.
Two key points from Rubel's letter:
- The
total award of $305M (including $137M of Payless profits and $137M in
punitive damages) is ten times the amount of actual damages found
($30.6M) and exceeds the profits that Payless ShoeSource made on its
two- and four-stripe shoe styles by 15 times. Though our scope of
patent and trademark infringement case is limited, we don't ever recall
seeing a jury award of this magnitude.
- If the decision
stands as ruled, it may also give adidas exclusive rights to all two-
and four-stripe footwear designs. Payless is by no means the only
footwear retailer with a private label that resembles adidas'
three-stripe design (look around the footwear department at any mass
merchant retailer). A ruling like this could potentially give adidas a
monopoly on all striped shoe styles, which would have grave
consequences across the industry as a whole.
As we
discussed last week, the final outcome of legal disputes like these are
virtually impossible to predict. Even though management provided
compelling evidence as to why the jury award should be reduced,
investors should not assume this will happen when forming an investment
thesis or valuation assumptions. The only certainty in this matter is
that the company will incur additional litigation expenses, leading to
additional margin pressures in coming quarters. There is also the
matter of the ongoing K-Swiss (NASDAQ: KSWS)
trademark battle taking place in California. We anticipate the K-Swiss
legal team will use findings from the adidas case to augment its own
arguments, likely requiring additional litigation costs on the part of
Collective Brands.
On a positive note, Rubel reported that the
company is set to announce 1Q08 sales of $932M (a decline of 2.5% y/y)
and EPS of $0.61-$0.67, beating current consensus analyst estimates.
Management also expects EBITDA to exceed $100M - almost 11% of sales -
which is a solid figure given the current challenges facing the
footwear industry. While the 1Q08 results are encouraging, they do come
with a grain of salt. The 1Q08 results do not include the impact of
additional litigation expenses (the 1Q08 impact should be minimal - it
is future quarters we are more concerned with) and an $0.08 tax benefit
stemming from earnings generated in lower-tax international
jurisdictions (largely South America). Excluding the positive tax
effect, 1Q08 earnings would come in roughly equivalent to the analyst
consensus of $0.54 per share.
Investment recommendation: The
stock was up almost 12% in Monday's trading session to $11.50 [ed: it closed at $11.82], due
largely to the better-than-expected 1Q08 earnings results. Using the
previous consensus calendar 2008 (fiscal 2009) EPS estimate of $1.12
plus the $0.10 upside from the 1Q08 results (comparing the midpoint of
the $0.61-$0.67 range to the previous consensus of $0.54), the stock is
now trading at 9.5x times forward earnings, roughly in-line with
long-term earnings growth expectations. We remain upbeat on the
prospects for the combined Payless/Stride Rite/Collective Licensing
platform, and admire the merchandising creativity that Rubel has
assembled under the Collective Brands umbrella. However, we still
characterize Collective Brands as a long-term investment that will
require patience on the part of the investor. Even longer-horizon value
investors may want to wait until after the 1Q08 conference call (June
4th, 5;00 pm EST) to build or add to positions - there is a chance that
negative commentary regarding the overall state of the footwear industry or ongoing litigation could bring the stock price downward.
Disclosure: No positions
Complete Story »
PSS
R.J. Hottovy
-
Why Gencor Industries Hit the Asphalt
read more
One of the reason smallcaps can be so lucrative is that they receive very little media or analyst coverage. Unfortunately, it can also be why you can suffer horrific losses when you do not know the reasons behind the price movements in your stock.

2008-05-13T06:40:37-04:00
Aaron Adams
Aaron Adams submits:
One of the reason smallcaps can be so lucrative is that they receive very little media or analyst coverage. Unfortunately, it can also be why you can suffer horrific losses when you do not know the reasons behind the price movements in your stock.

Complete Story »
GENC
Aaron Adams
-
San Juan Basin Royalty Trust: Earnings Estimates Are Too Low
read more
The oil and gas story is alive and well and looks to be into the foreseeable future. San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT) looks very well positioned on the higher moving price of natural gas, but has experienced some negativity as recent costs have been higher than expected, cutting into earnings and the last few distributions. Looking forward, this trust looks to have capacity for the next ten years, as they have resources of over 50 trillion cubic feet.
Year over year we have seen oil and gas production decrease 10%, but with realized oil prices doubling last year this coming quarter could be very good for earnings. If we look at average price attained last year gas was $6.11 per Mcf, and oil $63 per barrel. Last year saw a decrease in the collected price of natural gas and that was the main contributor to negativity with respect to earnings. Capital expenditures have also been a problem as 2006 was very large and there wasn't enough of a decrease for last year. I believe we will see these expenditures come down this year more in line with 2005 numbers. The trust estimates capital expenditures will decrease by $5 million for this year.
2008-05-13T06:23:09-04:00
Michael Filloon
Michael Filloon submits:
The oil and gas story is alive and well and looks to be into the foreseeable future. San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT) looks very well positioned on the higher moving price of natural gas, but has experienced some negativity as recent costs have been higher than expected, cutting into earnings and the last few distributions. Looking forward, this trust looks to have capacity for the next ten years, as they have resources of over 50 trillion cubic feet.
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Finance
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Personal Finance Blog
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Small Business Trends
Financial Times
Digg Finance
Live TV
Bloomberg |
USA |
Asia |
UK |
Brazil |
CNBC News
Forums:
misc.invest.*
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