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BA.net feedsburner SeekingAlpha News 01/07/2008

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WSJ Trots Out Same Fed Policy Axiom

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Yesterday morning's Ahead of the Tape column($) in the Wall Street Journal trots out the same old tired axiom about recent Federal Reserve policy as it relates to financial instability and rising prices, particularly rising oil prices - the old "fireman" metaphor.

Like many others, the "fireman as arsonist" model always seemed to make more sense to me.

2008-07-01T06:07:15-04:00 Tim Iacono

Tim Iacono submits:

Yesterday morning's Ahead of the Tape column($) in the Wall Street Journal trots out the same old tired axiom about recent Federal Reserve policy as it relates to financial instability and rising prices, particularly rising oil prices - the old "fireman" metaphor.

Like many others, the "fireman as arsonist" model always seemed to make more sense to me.


Complete Story »

Tim Iacono

New PowerShares ETF to See Which Way the Wind Blows

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By Murray Coleman

Less than two weeks after the first wind energy exchange-traded fund hit the market, a more concentrated and at least initially more expensive alternative is set to launch.

2008-07-01T06:07:04-04:00 Index Universe

IndexUniverse submits:

By Murray Coleman

Less than two weeks after the first wind energy exchange-traded fund hit the market, a more concentrated and at least initially more expensive alternative is set to launch.


Complete Story »

PWND FAN Index Universe

That Was Ugly

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12ndhalves_2Monday's close put the finishing touches on the worst first half to a year for the Dow since the index was down 14.60% from January through June of 1970.  The 14.44% decline for the Dow makes it the tenth worst first half since 1900.  At right we highlight the second half performance of the Dow based on a number of first-half scenarios (click to enlarge). 

As shown, poor starts to the year are typically met with underperformance for the remainder of the year, although significant declines of 10% or more have seen an average gain in the second half that is slightly better than the average for all second halves.  When the Dow has been down in the first half, it has averaged a gain of just 0.29% for the second half, with gains 57.5% of the time.  Declines of 5% or more have actually averaged a loss of 1.29% for the rest of the year, while declines of 10% or more have averaged a gain of 4.36% in the second half. 

2008-07-01T05:59:44-04:00 Bespoke Investment Group

Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:

12ndhalves_2Monday's close put the finishing touches on the worst first half to a year for the Dow since the index was down 14.60% from January through June of 1970.  The 14.44% decline for the Dow makes it the tenth worst first half since 1900.  At right we highlight the second half performance of the Dow based on a number of first-half scenarios (click to enlarge). 

As shown, poor starts to the year are typically met with underperformance for the remainder of the year, although significant declines of 10% or more have seen an average gain in the second half that is slightly better than the average for all second halves.  When the Dow has been down in the first half, it has averaged a gain of just 0.29% for the second half, with gains 57.5% of the time.  Declines of 5% or more have actually averaged a loss of 1.29% for the rest of the year, while declines of 10% or more have averaged a gain of 4.36% in the second half. 


Complete Story »

DIA Bespoke Investment Group

Mid-Year Price Changes of Major Commodities

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Now that the year is halfway over, below we highlight the year to date percent change of ten major commodities.  As everyone knows, commodities have had quite a run so far in 2008.  While oil has been the major focus, natural gas and corn have risen more than crude.  Natural gas is up 78.8% so far this year, while corn is up nearly 60%.  Oil is up 46% after starting the year at $96/barrel.  Trailing oil is platinum, copper, silver, wheat, coffee and gold. 

Oranges are the only commodity of the ten listed that are down on the year (-17.58%).  If the US consumer is going to survive the second half of the year, these commodities are going to have to stop going up... and fast.

2008-07-01T05:51:26-04:00 Bespoke Investment Group

Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:

Now that the year is halfway over, below we highlight the year to date percent change of ten major commodities.  As everyone knows, commodities have had quite a run so far in 2008.  While oil has been the major focus, natural gas and corn have risen more than crude.  Natural gas is up 78.8% so far this year, while corn is up nearly 60%.  Oil is up 46% after starting the year at $96/barrel.  Trailing oil is platinum, copper, silver, wheat, coffee and gold. 

Oranges are the only commodity of the ten listed that are down on the year (-17.58%).  If the US consumer is going to survive the second half of the year, these commodities are going to have to stop going up... and fast.


Complete Story »

GSG DBC GLD IAU USO OIL SLV UNG DBA DBP DBB DBO Bespoke Investment Group

Adjusted for Income & Fuel Efficiency Increases, Gas Today is Almost 50% Below Record High

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Yesterday's CD post of a graph of 1,000 gallons of gas as a percent of per-capita disposable income (top graph above) shows that we're still nowhere near record highs for gasoline, when measured as a share of income.

2008-07-01T05:43:28-04:00 Mark J. Perry

Mark J. Perry submits:


Yesterday's CD post of a graph of 1,000 gallons of gas as a percent of per-capita disposable income (top graph above) shows that we're still nowhere near record highs for gasoline, when measured as a share of income.


Complete Story »

USO OIL DBO Mark J. Perry

Dancing with the Bear Market

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Since hitting an all time high of 14279.96 on October 11 of last year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average [DJIA] will close the second quarter of 2008 officially having entered bear market territory–enduring a 20% decline. The broader market index–the Standard & Poor’s 500–is off 18.4% from its high on that date, while the Nasdaq Composite–which peaked later in October–has declined 19.4% from its most recent high and the Russell 2000 (small cap) index is off 19% from its high of last summer. I don’t think anyone would argue at this point that we in a bear market.

Furthermore, if you look at the peak-to-trough numbers of some of the formerly high-flying equity markets around the world, the recent performance of U.S. equities looks downright docile in comparison. For virtually every major global equity market, the first half of 2008 has been a painful ride.

2008-07-01T05:41:39-04:00 Ockham Research

Ockham Research submits:

Since hitting an all time high of 14279.96 on October 11 of last year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average [DJIA] will close the second quarter of 2008 officially having entered bear market territory–enduring a 20% decline. The broader market index–the Standard & Poor’s 500–is off 18.4% from its high on that date, while the Nasdaq Composite–which peaked later in October–has declined 19.4% from its most recent high and the Russell 2000 (small cap) index is off 19% from its high of last summer. I don’t think anyone would argue at this point that we in a bear market.

Furthermore, if you look at the peak-to-trough numbers of some of the formerly high-flying equity markets around the world, the recent performance of U.S. equities looks downright docile in comparison. For virtually every major global equity market, the first half of 2008 has been a painful ride.


Complete Story »

SPX QQQQ IWM Ockham Research

The Next Phase Of The Financial Crisis

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U.S. banks are now struggling to raise capital, according to reports from the Wall Street Journal, investment managers such as Sprott Asset Management, and financial blogs such as Naked Capitalism (see links below). This shows up in the concessions being made to get deals done and regulators' efforts to increase inflows.

Of note: i) stock and rights offerings at substantial discounts to market prices, ii) offerings with ratchet clauses entitling new investors to be compensated with more shares if a subsequent share issue is done below their purchase price, and iii) Federal Reserve pushing to remove limits on stakes taken by private-equity investors.

2008-07-01T05:38:33-04:00 Larry MacDonald

Larry MacDonald submits:

U.S. banks are now struggling to raise capital, according to reports from the Wall Street Journal, investment managers such as Sprott Asset Management, and financial blogs such as Naked Capitalism (see links below). This shows up in the concessions being made to get deals done and regulators' efforts to increase inflows.

Of note: i) stock and rights offerings at substantial discounts to market prices, ii) offerings with ratchet clauses entitling new investors to be compensated with more shares if a subsequent share issue is done below their purchase price, and iii) Federal Reserve pushing to remove limits on stakes taken by private-equity investors.


Complete Story »

Larry MacDonald

Lehman the Teenager

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After another dismal day, Lehman Brothers (LEH) closed below $20 per share for the first time since May 2000.  As shown below, its descent over the last year or so has not been pretty.  From its high of $85.80 in February of last year, the stock is now down 76.9%.

click to enlarge

2008-07-01T05:15:57-04:00 Bespoke Investment Group

Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:

After another dismal day, Lehman Brothers (LEH) closed below $20 per share for the first time since May 2000.  As shown below, its descent over the last year or so has not been pretty.  From its high of $85.80 in February of last year, the stock is now down 76.9%.

click to enlarge


Complete Story »

LEH Bespoke Investment Group

Tuesday Outlook: Oversold Conditions Remain

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harpoatbar

Yesterday went about as one might expect with conditions short-term oversold at the opening bell. So we had our rally based more on these conditions and a dash of hope more than any positive news.

2008-07-01T05:11:03-04:00 David Fry

david fryDavid Fry (ETF Digest) submits:

harpoatbar

Yesterday went about as one might expect with conditions short-term oversold at the opening bell. So we had our rally based more on these conditions and a dash of hope more than any positive news.


Complete Story »

SPY SDS MDY MZZ IWM QQQQ TWM QID XLF KBE IYR SRS XLI SIJ XLY SCC IEF TLT UUP UDN David Fry

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

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<< Return to page  - Oversold Conditions Remain

2008-07-01T05:01:00-04:00 David Fry

david fryDavid Fry (ETF Digest) submits:

<< Return to page  - Oversold Conditions Remain


Complete Story »

GLD DBC USO XLE DBB SLX DBA MOO XLB SMN DAG EFA EEM RSX EWZ IFN FXI EEV FXP David Fry

What's the Story on Amgen Shorts?

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When combing through Barron's over the weekend I always make it a point to check out the "Short Interest" tables when they appear. I'm curious, in particular, about the ups and downs in Dendreon (DNDN). Right now it's 39th on Barron's list of the Top-40 largest short positions.

To take a small step back, the short interest is a barometer of bearish investors in a stock. These are people (oftentimes hedge funds) who think shares are gonna go down and position themselves to make money if/when they do.

2008-07-01T04:55:08-04:00 Mike Huckman

Mike Huckman submits:

When combing through Barron's over the weekend I always make it a point to check out the "Short Interest" tables when they appear. I'm curious, in particular, about the ups and downs in Dendreon (DNDN). Right now it's 39th on Barron's list of the Top-40 largest short positions.

To take a small step back, the short interest is a barometer of bearish investors in a stock. These are people (oftentimes hedge funds) who think shares are gonna go down and position themselves to make money if/when they do.


Complete Story »

AMGN Mike Huckman

eBay Spooked by French Court's $61 Million Luxury Brand Ruling

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I understand why eBay (EBAY) is so chapped over a French court's ruling that it must pay $61 million to LVMH (LVMUY.PK), the parent company of Louis Vuitton, for allowing the sale of fake luxury goods.

LVMH had charged that eBay's French division hadn't moved aggressively enough to prevent knockoffs of several of its brands, including Louis Vuitton, Dior, Guerlain, Givenchy, and Kenzo.

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