Are VC's just lucky? [Babbling VC]

If I was, I sure as hell wouldn't admit it!!! (via Private Equity Hub)

Could Good VCs Be Just Lucky?

Could a great VC get to the top of the Midas list by just being lucky?

The press might pick up the story and track down the successful guesser, call him a clairvoyant, the Oracle of Wrigley Field. There would, no doubt, be discussion of how the guesser had come to his win/loss prediction each day. Did he take into account whether the wind was blowing in or out? Was his prediction a product of some hitherto unknown baseball brilliance? Should the Cubs manager consult him before each game for advice?

The guesser’s strategy might have been as simple as flipping a coin, however. And this might be the most maddening thing of all.

It could, of course, explain how people such as Peter Lynch always seem to come out ahead. An investor’s decision isn’t as simple as win/lose, but when the base of investors is big enough, there’s bound to be someone who wins almost all of the time.

Could such a principal hold true in venture capital? Could a successful VC pick the right companies all the time as the product of sheer dumb luck?

These questions get to the heart of what VCs actually do. Do you have an anecdote about how a VC has been a big help to you?

If I was, I sure as hell wouldn't admit it!!! (via Private Equity Hub) Could Good VCs Be Just Lucky? Could a great VC get to the top of the Midas list by just being lucky? The press might pick...

Farewell to DailyMotion's co-creator Benjamin Bejbaum [Fred Destin]

Benjamin Bejbaum, the original founder of short-form entertainment site DailyMotion, has withdrawn from day-to-day operations at the company.  Many of you or guessed what is now official news after our PR release.

Ben will remain on the board and I know we will continue to benefit from his input, in particular on product strategy but on all other topics as well.

We (as in Atlas Venture) first identified DailyMotion in March 2003 when one of our guys (Pierre Festal) noticed their traffic uptick.  We did not move immediately (damn) and only proactively re-engaged in June.  I first met Ben at Les Deux Magots in Paris in spring 2005.  He was deeply engaged with two other venture firms and did not want to speak to us.  Through Jeremie Berrebi via Mark Oiknine, we managed to get 20 minutes with him which turned into 3 hours and an interrupted conversation since.

From the get-go I was impressed by a singular product vision that was both personal and credible, and an incredible ability to pitch the DailyMotion mantra and message.  Ben is a born communicator with some radical insights.

From the get-go it was also an astonishing roller-coaster.  I remember we passed top 100 around new-year 06/07, around the same time as the DailyMotion team stole the Xmas tree from our neighbours at Metro (Sapingrerie !).

One of the things that amazed me with Ben is a singular ability to pitch this business to anyone, including some fairly senior folks.  When he was in the zone, it was just a joy to behold.  One other, as I mentioned, was a a very pure and original product vision.

"Me, I like to share, you know"

Like anyone who has been that intensely involved in a business, I guess it is tough when you do not run anymore.  Ben is a 100% guy and he will be, I am sure, coming back to market shortly with his next disruptive idea.  Sure we had our moments, as with any hypergrowth company, but it certainly was a great kick for me to work with Ben from the early days and see this company evolve.

 

Why it's so hard being a Founder in France

I know we are going to get a ton of speculation about why he's leaving and the role of VCs and so on, particularly after the Tariq Affair (or here) so I would rather address this upfront. 

I already see a lot of nonsensical commentary (with all due respect) for example in the comment thread of Ouriel's post here: "triste nouvelle pour Benjamin".  Why ?  How do you know ?  Why is it sad to build a great business and pass it on to an experienced guy going forward ?

I had a chat with Mike Butcher on this topic recently who repeated my concerns on the Techcrunch UK blog.  Many folks will tell you that it's hard doing business in France because of social law or stock option rules.  This is only very partially true and there are workarounds to most issues.  The one big issue that keeps dogging us is that in France, only the boss seems to matter.  In the US, original founders are the real heroes and subsequent management, whilst also lauded, are fundamentally seen as highly competent hired guns.  The real gold dust is the founder.  But then founders often leave when the company grows, especially in highly product focused companies as is typical of Web2.  In France, everyone keeps getting upset when founders have to leave the CEO role.  This puts some kind of moral pressure on everyone and a feeling that somehow it's a failure on the part of the founder to let the CEO post go.  Let founders do what they are good at.

Let's repeat what everyone knows:

• the real value is company creation; that's the hardest thing to do.  Innovating in hostile environments take raw talent and complete suspension of disbelief.  The founders who make this happen are the heroes of our industry.
• Unless you are Dell, Jobs or Bezos (or some guys in our portfolio such as Liautaud, Ahlberg, Patel), you just won't be the right guy to be CEO.  When you are a technically minded founder, is your dream job really to have a queue of people constantly in front of your office complaining about their compensation, lack of resources, why tech isn't delovering on the roadmap, the necessity to have tighter processes etc.  No !  Of course not !  And guess what, that's what being the CEO of a larger company is mostly about.  Founders don't often make great late stage CEOs, let's get over it.

I urge you to read Ouriel's great post on this topic, featuring Steve Austin.

Building a company to a large size and then passing it on to experienced managers is great -- it's a mature statement. 

I look forward to seeing Ben's great new adventure as it emerges.  Ben, just don't push that RT 1200 too hard huh ?  And thanks again for all the hard work.

 

Memories ....

Above: This is Ben's orginal profile photo on Daily -- boy does he look younger !  4 years of hard startup work later ...

Below: Da First Video !  6M video assets later ...

camera ?
Uploaded by RobertDeRosny

 

Benjamin Bejbaum, the original founder of short-form entertainment site DailyMotion, has withdrawn from day-to-day operations at the company. Many of you or guessed what is now official news after our PR release. Ben will remain on the board and I...

How Deep Are Yahoo's Cuts? [Silicon Alley Insider]

After our recent posts about a hiring freeze at Yahoo (YHOO), we're hearing more stories which (anecdotally) confirm that Sunnyvale is battening down the hatches. Here's one, via e-mail, from Web standards guru Molly Holzschlag.

I had been just about to sign a contract for a week long training event as part of the Yahoo! Juku program [an internal training program for developers]. We were all very excited about the event, when I got a phone call from my contact there over Memorial Day weekend to tell me that a decision to drop contractors from the program was being made (they have excellent internal folks). So clearly it was budget related, but I cannot tell you the actual facts about the influences that led to that decision. It was handled very well, however, and as I said we were all very disappointed and expressed hope of working together again at some time in the future.

Anyone else want to weigh in with their tale? We have also heard from Yahoos who insist that hiring continues apace, and we're happy to process those tales, too: The more information the better. Drop us a line at tips@alleyinsider.com or use our anonymous tip box (note that it is indeed anonymous, so we won't be able to follow up with you unless you leave us some sort of contact information).

Can Good VCs Be Just Lucky? [PE HUB]

Could a great VC get to the top of the Midas list by just being lucky? Suppose the Chicago Cubs had a special offer: guess the outcome of opening day’s game correctly and we’ll give you a free ticket to tomorrow’s game. Predict right two days in a row and you’ll get a free ticket to [...]

A Nose for IPO News [PE HUB]

When I got sinus surgery in 2002 I told people the experience was like sticking a Weedwhacker up your nose. Treating chronic sinusitis is, in fact, a complicated process prone to complications. Three hours after I was discharged from the OR I was back in the ER with the insides of my nose feeling like [...]

Cost of Obsessively Checking Your Email: $650 Million a Year [Silicon Alley Insider]

American workers waste $650 million a year checking email too often, the NYT's Matt Richtel says. Specifically, they waste $650 million trying to get back to work after checking email too often:

A typical information worker who sits at a computer all day turns to his e-mail program more than 50 times and uses instant messaging 77 times, according to one measure by RescueTime, a company that analyzes computer use habits. The company, which draws its data from 40,000 people who have tracking software on their computers, found that on average the worker also stops at 40 Web sites over the course of the day.

The fractured attention comes at a cost. In the United States, more than $650 million a year in productivity is lost because of unnecessary interruptions, predominately nonurgent digital communication, according to Basex. The firm says that a big chunk of that cost comes from the time it takes people to recover from an interruption and get back to work.

The good news: Companies like Google are committed to doing something about it. How? By putting safeties on their email programs. For example: Email Addict, a new feature Google rolled out last week after figuring out how much time Googlers were wasting using Gmail.

More at NYT

Forbes: Lenny Dykstra May Not Be A Financial Genius [Silicon Alley Insider]

Enjoy reading the stock picks of former Mets outfielder Lenny Dykstra in TheStreet.com (TSCM)? Forbes has bad news for you: Lenny's calls may not be his own.

The magazine, prompted by a legal fight between Lenny and a publishing outfit run by former Forbes writer Randall Lane, suggests that Lenny's picks are served up to him by pro analyst Richard Suttmeier, who has his own stock newsletter. To prove its point, it examines 17 recommendations that Lenny made in April, and finds that 11 of them had appeared in Suttmeier's letter "days earlier."

To be fair, Forbes doesn't have evidence that Dykstra is repurposing all of Suttmeier's picks. And there are plenty of me-too stockpickers -- it sort of comes with the territory. "This is a smear job," Lenny tells Forbes. Who knows? But it's a great read. (For another great read on Lenny -- this one much more sympathetic -- check out the New Yorker's profile from earlier this year.)

Hedging Your House For Fun and Profit [Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed]

Interesting news: MacroMarkets is launching a housing ETF the price of which will tied to housing prices in ten major U.S. metropolitan areas.   Of course, because of the way MacroMarkets engineers these things they can only fall 50%, so they won't help you all the way down if you're counting on a complete housing price collapse. Then again, if that's your concern then a perfect hedge is the least of your worries.

More here.

[via IndexUniverse]

A Non-Cancer Explanation For Why Apple's Steve Jobs Has Lost Weight [Silicon Alley Insider]

Steve Jobs' weight loss could be a common side effect of the operation that cured his pancreatic cancer, says Philip Elmer-Dewitt at Fortune. Philip says that Jobs likely had the "Whipple" procedure, which often causes significant and permanent weight loss:

Along with the digestive problems, patients often lose 5% to 10% of their body weight after the procedure. Weight stabilizes within the first year or two for the vast majority of patients, says Dr. Dilip Parekh, chief of tumor and endocrine surgery at the University of Southern California, who has performed more than 100 Whipple procedures. 'There is a small group of people who tend to have persistent problems with weight loss and loss of energy and you often you are not able to pinpoint why,' he says. 'But if they stay active and manage their nutrition well, there is no reason for them not to live a normal life.'

Jobs has never spoken publicly about what life is like after the Whipple, so we can't be sure that he has any of the post-operative problems associated with the procedure. But they would go long way toward explaining why he looked the way did on Monday. And none of them would indicate that his cancer has returned, or that his capacity for work is diminished. Post-operative guides for patients suggest that there will be lifestyle changes but that they need not be drastic. And a survey of patients at Johns Hopkins Hospital found that the overall quality of life of long-term survivors of the surgery is nearly comparable to that of healthy people.

More details on Philip's Apple 2.0